NBL Round 10

deasend · All Australian Joined: 04 Aug 2006 Posts: 590

3* Cairns/Tigers under 188.5

Was 189.5 yesterday but I was too slow. After watching Cairns last week, I love the way they play defense. Veyr physical, Mee and Grabau have very active hands making it difficult for the ball carrier (particularly if your ball carrier is mainly a 205 cm guy averaging 1 assist a game). Cairns also seemed to love chewing the clock down and working their sets. This combo seems the perfect recipe for all the low totals the Taipans have had this year.

Melbourne are coming off a bye week and haven't played for 11 days. Before that they had two games in the 170s against free flowing teams Sydney and New Zealand. Cairns have had an intensive few weeks and will be looking to slow this down with their old bodies. These two have a history of low scoring games and I'm looking for this to continue here.

Watch out for the Tigers coming off a loss. Their biggest wins this season have been the games rebounding from a loss where they've won by 24, 28 and 13. I was looking to back them in this situation here, but the line is too big. In games where the line is over 12, the underdog is 9-1 at the line this season, including the dog (Cairns, Sixers) winning outright twice in NZ. Combine this with my predicted low scoring contest and it's a no play for me.

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

compelling arguement, Ill tail, SA have 189

Melbourne/Cairns Under 189
2.2 Units @ $1.90

stumpy · Rookie Joined: 05 Nov 2008 Posts: 9 Location: WA

Well after the start ive had looking at turning it around here.

1* Tigers/Taipans under 188.5

1* Taipans +12.5

YTD 0-4 -6.5* Confused

(great start)

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

Oh well at least it was over early! Smile

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

Cant keep going at this pace and %

Melbourne/Cairns under 99 2nd half
1.70 units @ $1.85

Melbourne -5.5 3rd quarter
1.15 units @ $1.85

deasend · All Australian Joined: 04 Aug 2006 Posts: 590

The second half was the type of game I expected. Scoring really dried up in the last, didn't pass the mark until 2:30 left in the game somehow.

Ahh well, better to lose them early than to lose on the last shot.

Congrats Stumpy on getting that first win on the board after a rough start. Keep with it, we need more contributors on here.

onionsoup_ · Hall Of Fame Joined: 27 May 2004 Posts: 1087

NZ -2 vs South @ 1.92 1.5 units

GL

stumpy · Rookie Joined: 05 Nov 2008 Posts: 9 Location: WA

Good cover at half time Dutchy. There was no way both teams were going to keep scoring at that ridiculous clip...

And its nice to finally have a win, although I only halved.

1* Breakers -1

Going to be a very tough game here but cant go against the Breakers at home.

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

Hmm Im liking South here, will have to look into it more

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

money come for the breakers, some weird lines across all the bookies for this one, like South here, first road trip for over a month, they will come to play while NZ have had some tough ones on the road

South Dragons +2.5
2.2 Units @ $1.91

Dragons/NZ under 206.5
1.1 Units @ $1.90

deasend · All Australian Joined: 04 Aug 2006 Posts: 590

1.5* over 205.0
1.5* South SU @ 2,10

NZ seem to be everyone's golden child and they are the popular pick here, but I'm going to go against the grain. Gorj has never lost to Lemanis since coaching in the NBL. South have won 8 games straight and have been looking forward to a challenge for a while as it's been smooth travelling since the Tigers game. They've had a 5 game home stint and as Dutchy has mentioned previously on this forum, its a nice spot to back teams going well in the first road game after such a run.

I'm happy to take the leagues best team to continue their 8 game run against their nearest challenger.

As for the over, this seems strange given both teams have gone under in their last 5 games each. The Breakers average 204 per game, but this inflates to 212 at home. The Dragons average 185 per game, but this inflates to 196 on the road. Looking for a Dragons win with a 110-102 sort of score. Vukona to have a big one on his return home.

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

Adelaide/Sydney Over 201
2.2 Units @ $1.91

Hodge might not score too many but reckon he will help the shooters get plenty of open looks

Amazing Adelaide opened $2.05 in this game now into $1.52 Shocked

deasend · All Australian Joined: 04 Aug 2006 Posts: 590

2* Adelaide -4
1.5* Sixers/Spirit over 201.5

Yes Dutchy, massive line movement. I saw the Sixers as underdogs when I left for work this morning, only to get them at -4. Should have grabbed them when I had the chance,

Hodge returns to give the Sixers a lift, but I think the most important name in this game is Damien Martin who is out for 8 weeks for the Spirit, Not a massive numbers man, Martin is the glue for the Spirit and will leave a massive hole. To see what he brings you only need to see their record from last season. The Razors started the year 6-4 with Martin. After he was out with injury, they finished the rest of the year 4-16.

Lean towards the over here. Adelaide games average a 180.2 total at home, but th rises to 198.6 for away games. Sydney totals rise from 193.1 away to 199.1 at home. Sydney's best defender is out, Adelaide add to their strike force with Hodge (and Maher in his second game back). I think both teams should get up and down here to get over the 200.

stumpy · Rookie Joined: 05 Nov 2008 Posts: 9 Location: WA

2* Adelaide -4.5
1* Adelaide/Adelaide HT/FT @2.20

Spirit lacking in depth due to injuries. Adelaide will be too strong.

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

get on this one early, ive seen this total as low as 191....sell out tonight at the Dome should be a huge game, and expect South to play this one slow

Adelaide/South Dragons Under 196.5
2.2 Units @ $1.91

will have more

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

had this total over 200 so have to play it quite large, cant see how this stays under 200

Hawks/Crocs Over 198.5
2.75 Units @ $1.91

Liked what I saw from Cairns on Wed night, think they are start to mould together and have a good experienced team that might be just starting to hit their straps, they are due a good win at home also so believe motivation will be there

Cairns +2.5
1.65 Units @ $1.91

stumpy · Rookie Joined: 05 Nov 2008 Posts: 9 Location: WA

2* Cats -2

Cats have had the week off, will come out cracking and should be too much for the Taipans

deasend · All Australian Joined: 04 Aug 2006 Posts: 590

After the under has dominated all season, round 10 saw every game this round go over. Not sure if it is as a result of the books over compensating for all the unders or just a more offensive play, but it's something to keep in mind.

This Week: 2-3 -3.8* (9.5* outlay)
YTD: 26-17 +8.45* (90*)

stumpy · Rookie Joined: 05 Nov 2008 Posts: 9 Location: WA

good to have some wins this week. Would of been better for everyone if Adelaide could have sealed the deal on Friday night...

This Week 3-3 -0.35* (8* outlay)
YTD 3-7 -6.85* (14.5*)