NBL Round 13

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

Adelaide 36ers v Townsville Crocodiles Under 197.5
1.65 Units @ $1.91

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

Big card tonight -

South been best team all year, like them to win again tonight and total is too high also -

South Dragons -1.5
2.2 @ $1.91

South/Melbourne Under 200.5
2.3 @ $1.85

Cairns still have a reasonable team and I expect a bit of a "Sydney" type reaction here and take the points -

Cairns +7.5
1.1 @ $1.91

Only 3 weeks ago these teams put up 235 points at the same venue, should be able to go over this one -

Wollongong/Crocs Over 202.5
1.65 @ $1.91

Adelaide have been good at home recently but play their 3rd game for the week plus travel to perth plus some injury concerns, Perth have been at home and rested and coming off some poor losses, expecting a reaction at home where they havent played for a month

Perth -5
2.2 @ $1.93

Perth/Adelaide Under 192.5
1.65 @ $1.91

deasend · All Australian Joined: 04 Aug 2006 Posts: 590

Give me the under and the home teams in the two big clashes tonight.

2* Perth -4.5
2* Perth/Sixers under 192.5

Looking for the Cats to respond from a terrible road trip and return to form at the best home court advantage in the comp. Adelaide should win the boards comfortably again, but the Cats have had the wood on the Sixers in recent times and looking for that to continue in a low scoring game where anything over 90 is a winning score. Perth's defense will need to be turned up against the firepower of Hodge, Balls and Maher but I'm expecting them to make a stand here and come away with the win.

2* Tigers Win 2.05
2* Tigers/Dragons under 200.5

Tigers have bounced back from every loss so far this season with a win. Looking for Anstey and Ere to have big ones and get the 20 ppl that fit inside their home stadium to be making some noise in the derby and square the season series between the teams. Low scoring, can't see either teams giving up any easy buckets here regardless of the scoreline or the state of the game.

deasend · All Australian Joined: 04 Aug 2006 Posts: 590

The Dragons final quarter killed two bets with one stone. The Tigers should be able to hold on to a double figure lead in the last, very disappointed.

Cats game was 192 at the end of regulation, so got screwed over there, but the Cats covering the line in double OT made up for it.

Puts a bit of a dent in the balance for the year, but we should get that back this week as there are a few plays I like in this weeks games coming up. Hoping the lines are where I expect.
TW 1-3 -4.2* (8* outlay)
YTD: 34-23 +5.1* (125*)

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

YTD 34-31-2
-1.14 Units

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

Melbourne/Cairns Over 94.5 1st half
1.1 Units @ $1.90

Wollongong/Blaze Under 200
1.1 Units @ $1.90

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

Melb -9.0 2nd half
1.15 @ $1.85

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

NZ/Sydney Under 204.5
2.2 Units @ $1.91

Both teams coming of a good break after not having a game last weekend, trend off long breaks has been low scoring games....Sydney average 91 pts away from home and NZ averaging 100 in their past 8 games, this one ends up in the 190's I reckon

deasend · All Australian Joined: 04 Aug 2006 Posts: 590

Truth be told Dutchy, when teams come off long breaks the trend is to the over so far this season.

When one team is coming off a break of 10 days or more it's gone over 6-2. When you extend that to breaks of 8 or more, the edge favours the over 14-6. Not sure whether it applies in situations like this when both teams are coming off the bye though.

For what it's worth though, since the primary scoring options have left for Sydney and Cairns they haven't seemed to adjust the numbers so the under has collected every time. Hopefully that continues again here for you.

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

Sweet deal from www.luxbet.com.au offering $1.95 lines on all NBA and NBL until end of Jan both Lines and Totals

Ive only got an account with them as they took over Sportsbook, have hardly used them but this deal is too good to refuse they get my business

deasend · All Australian Joined: 04 Aug 2006 Posts: 590

Yep they've got me on board as well. Nice offer.

I did cash out from them when Sportsbook got bought out, but have put some cash back in there now.

2.5* Perth -3 @ 1.95
New Zealand have never won a game in Perth in their history. According to the NBL site, they've only kept it to single figures once. After playing on Thursday night, the Breakers make the longest flight in the league to play at 11pm NZ time against a team thats thirsty for revenge after letting two games slip in NZ earlier in the season.

The first game Perth let an 18 point lead slip to lose on a bad call on Penney in the last second. The second game Perth led by 8 at HT and scores were level with 6 minutes left before NZ kicked away to win by double figures. Big rivalry in this after the Penney call and Phill Jones punching Redhage in the nuts. Perth are fresh and waiting for revenge. They get this one in the last after both teams slug it out all match.

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

LUX also gave me a $100 free bet for transferring which was nice, coverted it into cold hard $ via Betfair Smile

anyway onto tonight, reckon totals are over inflated again, not sure where the points are going to come from in all of these games -

NZ/Perth Under 194
2.1 Units @ $1.95

South/Townsville Under 185.5
1.58 Units @ $1.95

Adelaide/Blaze Under 198
2.1 Units @ $1.95

deasend · All Australian Joined: 04 Aug 2006 Posts: 590

2* Crocs/Dragons under 186.5
2* Crocs +12.5 @1.95

Continuing to ride the Dragons under trend at home.

Crocs have won their last 4 SU against the Dragons, including two in Melbourne. They matchup alright against the Dragons and should be able to at least keep this from being a blowout. Should give the Dragons a big scare here I think.

2* Adelaide -11.5 @ 1.95
Adelaide were very impressive last week when they visited Perth. They just have so many scoring options. That frontline of Hodge, Balls and Schensch is tough and they'll be way too much for the Blaze to handle here. Sixers by 18.

deasend · All Australian Joined: 04 Aug 2006 Posts: 590

Small loss last night, splitting the four games. Looking to squeeze out a win on the last game to make it a profitable week.

2.5* Spirit/Crocs Under 195.5

Following the trends again.
- Teams in back to back have gone under 6-2 this year.
- Crocs have gone under 5 of their last 6.
- Sydney have gone under all 4 games since Khaz, Rush and Low have left.

These two played two weeks ago for a 92-87 result and I'm expecting a total below 190 again here.

deasend · All Australian Joined: 04 Aug 2006 Posts: 590

Nice to see todays game turning out the way it was supposed to.

Cairns and Sydney have both gone under in every game since they lost their primary scorers. Dragons home games have gone under in every match. I'm happy to keep following these through.

Good to have a winning week after being on a bit of a slide in recent times. Really disappointed in Perth's second half last night, both as a fan and a punter. Just threw it away. NZ continue to impress though.

TW 3-2 +1.45* (11* outlay)
YTD: 38-28 +6.55* (136*)