Australian Summer of Tennis

onionsoup_ · Hall Of Fame Joined: 27 May 2004 Posts: 1086

Some more great/interesting match ups today and after yesterday's results, also the 4th round. The benefit of a relatively upset-free first week. Federer looked pretty good last night, although to be fair Safin probably failed to test him save for the 3rd set. Seems like that was Safin's last match at the Open, he will be missed. Nice to see Dokic continue her run and hopefully Stosur can join her in the 4th round today to provide some joy for the Aussies.

Almagro +6.5 vs Monfils @ 1.93 1.5 units

Two rising young players meet here. Almagro is a heavy hitter of the ball but is also known to go walkabouts mentally at times. He had a very strong clay court season last year, but his recent results suggest his hard court play is also improving. Monfils is one of the most athletic players around and has improved his consistency over the past 12 months. From what I've seen, he doesn't seem to be particularly smart about the way he plays, although this may improve with new coach Roger Rasheed on board. This should be an entertaining, "mixed bag" type of match, with a few momentum swings I'd suggest. But all in all, I expect a tight one so I'm siding with the games on Almagro.

Ancic +3.5 vs Simon @ 2.14 1.5 units

Simon had an outstanding latter half of the year to vault into the Top 10, including defeats of Federer & Nadal. Whilst he's a very good player, I still believe Ancic is one of the bigger talents in the game, though his career seems to be constantly interrupted by illness/injury. He seems to have had a solid build up to the Open, with tournaments in Brisbane and Sydney and has received a good workout the past 2 matches, including going to 5 sets against his big serving countryman Karlovic. Therefore with a fair number of tough matches under his belt, I can see him giving Simon everything he can handle. Simon is a big fighter so even if Ancic is playing well I won't be surprised if this goes the distance.

Blake -5 vs Andreev @ 1.89 1.5 units

Blake is very much a confidence player, and he seems to be oozing it so far this week with two convincing beat downs of his opponents int he first two rounds. Andreev on the other hand, has had to battle through two 5 setters. I don't expect fatigue will play a huge role here as Andreev seems to be able to go all day, but it may still provide a minor edge to the American. But with Blake in-form and confident, I'm happy to back him on hard courts against Andreev more often than not.

Murray -8 vs Melzer @ 1.88 1.5 units

Melzer has given Murray some tough matches in the past, as Murray has acknowledged, however Murray's confidence right now is at a lot higher level than it previously has been, which Murray also noted when speaking about this match-up. Murray has all the tools to take apart Melzer's game and taking this into consideration with his current career-best form and Melzer's inconsistencies, I'm siding with the Scotsman here.

GL

onionsoup_ · Hall Of Fame Joined: 27 May 2004 Posts: 1086

Having a look at how the draw has unfolded, I do hold some slight fears for my main futures pick, Nadal. His quarter seems to be littered with dangerous, talented guys who could explode into form, starting with his match up with Haas tonight. Haas has given a royal beatdown to his two first round opponents, which is somewhat of a surprise given his indifferent form last year and his lack of matchplay recently. I expect Rafa will be too tough mentally for the fragile German in any case. Waiting next round is potentially Gonzalez, who we know can be destructive from his run here a couple of years ago, where Nadal was one of his scalps (in straight sets no less, I believe). Gonzo seems to be building up nicely and even if he falls to Gasquet, that won't be easy either for Rafa. Again I'd be hoping for mental fragility to come to the fore as Gasquet has a lot of ability, shot-making wise. Finally there's Ancic, who really one could argue has enough talent to take a Slam one day. All in all, I'm still backing my man Rafa as the best in the world, although it's looking like a very tough run!

onionsoup_ · Hall Of Fame Joined: 27 May 2004 Posts: 1086

YTD 12-10, +1.56 units

Murray & Nadal continue to impress, with demolition jobs on their opponents last night. Verdasco also put on another thrashing of his opponent, although reports seem to indicate that Stepanek's play was very indifferent out there.

Apparently for the first time at the AO, all of the top 8 seeds have made the 4th round, which makes for some mouth watering match ups from here on out.

del Potro -4 vs Cilic @ 1.83 1.5 units

Great match up here of two rising young guns on the tour. Both are undefeated so far this season after tournament wins leading into the Open. I give the edge to del Potro here through his near machine-like play from the baseline. At this stage, I think he has the more complete game than the Croat.

Berdych +7.5 vs Federer @ 1.81 2.5 units

A lot was made of the Federer v Safin match up, but in reality, Safin was not able to sustain a high standard for a very long period and as such Federer was not thoroughly tested, although it must be said he still did look impressive. I have a feeling this one might be surprisingly close. Berdych has a similar big-hitting game to Safin but at the respective stages of their careers is probably a better mover. After some indifferent form for a long period, he seems to be re-building nicely now with his performance so far in this tournament. Berdych has also ran Federer pretty close in several prior meetings, including his famous upset at the Athens Olympics, back when Federer was near on unbeatable. Berdych also has a great Davis Cup record so based on these factors, I would say that taking on Federer on the big stage won't hold any fears for him.

GL

onionsoup_ · Hall Of Fame Joined: 27 May 2004 Posts: 1086

Dramatic day yesterday, with Fed fighting back & Dokic continuing her march in a thriller. Djokovic & Baghdatis played an entertaining match, too.

The juicy matchups continue today:

Nadal -7.5 vs Gonzalez @ 1.76 3 units

I did express some concern over this potential matchup prior to the completion of the 3rd round, but I now have more confidence after seeing: a) Nadal playing sublime tennis to demolish Haas, he hardly could have been more impressive; and b) Gonzalez have to fight through a marathon that ended 12-10 in the 5th.

Whilst Gonzalez is a fit guy and should still be able to compete well today, playing a 5 setter first round and then another long 5 setter in the 3rd round must take some of the edge off him, which you can't really afford against Rafa, especially if he's at the level he displayed vs Haas. I think Nadal should do this comfortably.

Blake +3.5 vs Tsonga @ 2.05 3 units

Plenty of firepower between these two. Blake has been playing very well this week and should be confident. Tsonga has also been solid, though it must be said his form was patchy last up against Sela. Blake is now an experienced campaigner at this stage of a Slam and for mine is the player carrying the more impressive form into this one. Whilst Tsonga may end up having the better career, at this stage he still is relatively inexperienced and is still prone to inconsistency. Blake may also enjoy the underdog tag given his struggles dealing with pressure earlier in his career.

GL

onionsoup_ · Hall Of Fame Joined: 27 May 2004 Posts: 1086

YTD 15-11, +4.11 units

Another day for the favourites yesterday, with only Verdasco's massive upset of Murray preventing all top 8 seeds making it to the QFs for apparently the first time in history.

Djokovic -4 vs Roddick @ 1.94 2.5 units

Djokovic was struggling coming into this tournament but seems to have regained form and confidence as the week has progressed. He showed some good stuff vs Baghdatis and should have Roddick's measure if he maintains a high standard. Roddick himself has been impressive all week but there is a large difference in class from Djokovic to the opponents he has faced so far.

del Potro +6 vs Federer @ 1.96 4 units

Federer made a great escape against Berdych and did improve as the match progressed, but again it did show us that he can be vulnerable. del Potro has barely put a foot wrong this year and did well to steady after Cilic got the early jump on him and was applying strong pressure in the 2nd set. Whilst I'm not sure if del Potro has the mental capacity to take this match, I'm sure he has the game to make this very tough for Fed.

GL

deasend · All Australian Joined: 04 Aug 2006 Posts: 590

Great to see Verdasco get through over Murray. Didn't end up taking that Murray future, wish I had now.

Verdasco going strong. I think he could possibly get past Tsonga, but can't see him beating Nadal. The problem with Rafa is that he won't even present good hedge value in a semi final matchup between the two.

Rafa vs Fed/Novak looking the most likely. Rafa a rightful fave right now, but I don't think Fed is a lost cause just yet.

Dokic's run has been incredible so far. Each game you think she's played her grand final and will struggle to back up again, then she comes out and does it again. Safina, much like her brother, has a big difference between her best and worst tennis. If Jelana can get her on a down day, she can continue her run. If Safina is on, it's staight sets.

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

Great suprise to see Murray go down yesterday, Nadal's $5.50 looking super now, should have an easy run to the final, could lay off now but will punt on him making the final and then Lay a little

onionsoup_ · Hall Of Fame Joined: 27 May 2004 Posts: 1086

YTD 15-13, +0.11 units

Was lucky to avoid more damage yesterday, with Djokovic opting to retire in the heat. Federer was back to his absolute best last night in an absolutely thorough beatdown of del Potro, although it must be said JMDP did very little to try and change the tide of the match once Fed got on top. Even so, if Fed keeps up this type of form, it's very difficult to see anyone beating him, even Rafa.

Moving on:

Verdasco +3.5 vs Tsonga @ 1.952 1.5 units

Verdasco to win 3-0 @ 8.2 0.5 units

Backing the in-form Spaniard here, who could hardly have been more impressive in his upset of Murray. Tsonga was also very impressive in his win over Blake, but I feel that Verdasco is playing a higher level of tennis and also showing impressive maturity and mental toughness, which couldn't always be said about him. Smaller wager on the straight sets win - prior to the Murray match, Verdasco has been handling his opponents quite comfortably all summer, with quite a number of "bagels" also thrown in.

GL

onionsoup_ · Hall Of Fame Joined: 27 May 2004 Posts: 1086

YTD 16-14, +1.04 units

Federer has looked damn impressive out there the past 2 matches, like the old Rog. At this stage it looks like there will definitely be some hedging of futures in the final, but lets see how tomorrow goes first:

Nadal -6.5 vs Verdasco @ 1.98 2.5 units

Going with the champ here to set up another Fed-Nadal showdown. Verdasco has been brilliant all tournament, but going up against a multiple Slam champion and the world #1 in Raf is a different story. Verdasco has never been this deep in a Slam before and whilst he has been rock solid so far, the pressure may finally tell.

GL

onionsoup_ · Hall Of Fame Joined: 27 May 2004 Posts: 1086

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

yeah absolutely, the Fed looks awesome, while I think Rafa can beat him I was hoping the Fed was a little off his game and wouldnt make it to the final.

Ive got a $1200 profit if Rafa wins and was only thinking this morning I reckon Ill lay half of it for a pretty much even result no matter who wins....might lean it more to Rafa if he dominates again tonight, but Fed seems very determined this year, he has an edge to him that I havent seen before

whats your thoughts?

thadaz · Star Player Joined: 27 Mar 2004 Posts: 450

just saw your thread.....well done these past couple weeks soup!
yeah i reckon if fed/rafa final fed will be 1.50s-1.60s?
should be one heck of a final though!

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

Fed is $1.81 now, surely he wont get shorter if Nadal wins tonight?

onionsoup_ · Hall Of Fame Joined: 27 May 2004 Posts: 1086

Well... what a match. Absolute epic of the highest quality and for such a long duration. Props to both guys. Worst possible result for me though, betting-wise. Nadal fails to cover and then runs himself ragged for over 5 hours, surely leaving him drained for the final against a fresh and in-form Fed. Books know it too, after both were pretty much equal favs prior to their semi finals, odds have shortened a fair bit for Fed now, making the 'hedge' value worse.

My head tells me there's no way Rafa can win. Even if Rafa didn't play such a gruelling match tonight, Fed seems to be in better touch. Would need one of those Fed choke jobs when he faces Raf to have a chance.

What to do?

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

yeah tough one, Im going to wait until tomorrow as I reckon some support will come for Rafa late, reckon Ill LAY but still leave the best result being Rafa

still reckon Rafa can win, he has had a pretty cruisy ride so the 5 setter might not knock him around as much as we think, it might actually be good for him..

onionsoup_ · Hall Of Fame Joined: 27 May 2004 Posts: 1086

Well, Nadal saves my bacon. Great final, now shapes up as a very interesting year, how many Slams can Rafa win?

Was a fun month Very Happy

Overall record (inc. futures) 17-21, +5.47 units

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

good work Onion

ended up laying Rafa for half, so $600 profit which was still nice