Australian Summer of Tennis 2K10

onionsoup_ · Hall Of Fame Joined: 27 May 2004 Posts: 1086

Is upon us.

Whilst I enjoy following this part of the year, I can't help but get that "already?" feeling. You have to feel for these tennis players (from a physical perspective) who get only a 1-2 month off-season.

Triple-header Doha/Chennai/Brisbane tournaments to kick it off this week. Federer, Nadal, Davydenko & Roddick amongst the names involved.

Good luck.

onionsoup_ · Hall Of Fame Joined: 27 May 2004 Posts: 1086

Bellucci +4.5 vs Berdych @ 1.81 1.5u

GL

onionsoup_ · Hall Of Fame Joined: 27 May 2004 Posts: 1086

Posted 1-0, +1.215u

All in readiness now for the first Slam of the year.

Have taken these outright bets:

Murray @ 7.6 1u

Murray has done everything but win a Slam over the past couple of seasons, but even in this department he has shown improvement. Has GS final, SF & QF finishes under his belt and now it is just a matter of making the major breakthrough. He is as good as anyone else on a hard court and his lead-in form at the Hopman reads well, save for the blip against Robredo.

Verdasco @ 46.02 1u

Verdasco had a stunning campaign last year, going within a whisker of making the final and carried on that momentum to finish in the year-end Top 8. He's in Federer's quarter, and whilst a few dangerous names have been mentioned in this part of the draw (Hewitt, Baghdatis, Davydenko), for mine he's the biggest threat. His task will be taking the next step from putting on a good show against the big names, to beating them on a big stage such as this. Whilst he generally carried his form well over the course of last season, his record against the big names was poor. I have the feeling that coming back to the scene of his best career result will inspire him, though. Looked fit and focussed in taking out the Kooyong title as a lead-in.

Tsonga @ 81 0.75u

Tsonga remains a very dangerous proposition for any player and obviously likes the conditions here. Needed a red-hot Verdasco to stop him last year and I like the quarter he has drawn here, which looks pretty bare as far as contenders, with the exception of Djokovic. Whilst I wouldn't make him a favourite in such a match up, I'd give him a fair chance, and at these odds it's worth a crack.

Roddick @ 29 0.25u

Similar to the Tsonga wager, I think Roddick has drawn favourably, with del Potro the only serious threat, on paper, in his quarter. I still think Roddick lacks the all-around polish to his game to hang with the big boys on a medium-paced court, but he knows how to fight and hang around and is a fair candidate to make the last 4, given this draw. del Potro would still be favoured to take out the quarter, but Roddick wouldn't be without a chance and is therefore worth a small punt at these odds. Whilst I'm not convinced of his consistency over 2 weeks, Berdych does loom as a dangerous hurdle in making the QFs.

GL

onionsoup_ · Hall Of Fame Joined: 27 May 2004 Posts: 1086

Querrey -5.5 vs Schuettler @ 1.66 1.5u
GL

onionsoup_ · Hall Of Fame Joined: 27 May 2004 Posts: 1086

Bit more on the above bet:

Querrey is a good hard court player. He is coming off back-to-back R1 losses leading into this, but I can excuse that given he is coming off a lengthy injury break. Those matches should serve him well leading into this one. Schuettler is a battling veteran but appears to be well past it now.

Not a bad day 1, albeit very rain-interrupted. All the big names cruised with the exception of del Potro, who had a reasonably long match but still got it done. Perhaps of more note is that he complained that his wrist was bothering him a little as the match dragged on. Could be something to watch, and he doesn't have an easy 2nd round either (winner of Blake v Clement). If he's struggling, it bodes well for my Roddick outright, although Andy had an injury scare of his own today.

onionsoup_ · Hall Of Fame Joined: 27 May 2004 Posts: 1086

Posted 1-1, -0.285u

Querrey stunk it up, guess he still isn't at his best following his lay-off. As far as the outright markets go, Soderling crashed out to make what was probably the weakest quarter, even weaker. Taylor Dent put up what looks like a dominating R1 performance; he has a big game and represents some danger to Tsonga in R2. Federer & Verdasco both scraped past tricky R1 opponents, whilst Davydenko continued his machine-like play over the past few tournaments. Ferrer looked on his way to a triple-bagel pummeling of Gil, but it seems the towel was thrown in at 6-0 6-0 2-0.

Tomorrow I'm hoping Korolev can take out Berdych, who looked ominous today and Blake can oust del Potro. And of course will take some interest in how Tomic goes against Cilic. Cilic should get through that, but Tomic could grab a set.

GL

onionsoup_ · Hall Of Fame Joined: 27 May 2004 Posts: 1086

Dent +6.5 vs Tsonga @ 1.94 1.5u

onionsoup_ · Hall Of Fame Joined: 27 May 2004 Posts: 1086

Wawrinka to bt Cilic @ 2.29 1.5u

Kohlschreiber +8 vs Nadal @ 1.69 1.5u

onionsoup_ · Hall Of Fame Joined: 27 May 2004 Posts: 1086

Posted 2-3, -2.24u

Nothing major of interest coming over the past couple of days play. Roddick struggled to get over Lopez and I continue to doubt his ability to be a contender here but at the same time, he hangs in there and his #1 contender in his quarter del Potro doesn't appear to be at his best. At the current rate, it's looking like Cilic could be a big threat to advance to the SF.

Nadal is generally playing well, but is not yet at his best and hopefully Murray can capitalise on some of those vulnerabilities he displayed against Kohlschreiber.

Tonight we see the re-match of 2008's epic between Hewitt & Baghdatis, and both seem in reasonably good shape. Baghdatis is coming off a tough 5 setter against the bulldog Ferrer though, so Hewitt may be able to grind him out there with the additional gas in the tank. If he does, I think he may be able to keep things interesting against Fed, too.

Djokovic -8 vs Istomin @ 2.13 1.5u

Djokovic appeared to click into form during his 2nd round match, bouncing back tidily from dropping the first set. Istomin has posted a couple of impressive wins so far, but is a battler at this level and has been susceptible to blowout losses in the past.

GL

onionsoup_ · Hall Of Fame Joined: 27 May 2004 Posts: 1086

Nadal -5 vs Karlovic @ 1.92 1.5u

onionsoup_ · Hall Of Fame Joined: 27 May 2004 Posts: 1086

del Potro -3 vs Cilic @ 2 1.5u

onionsoup_ · Hall Of Fame Joined: 27 May 2004 Posts: 1086

Last match for the day:

Roddick -4 vs Gonzalez @ 1.74 1.5u

GL

onionsoup_ · Hall Of Fame Joined: 27 May 2004 Posts: 1086

Posted 3-5-1, -3.55u

Poor day, yesterday.

Tsonga -6.5 vs Almagro @ 1.94 1.5u

Tsonga seems to be rounding into form nicely and should have too much for Almagro, who has had a soft draw to get here.

GL

onionsoup_ · Hall Of Fame Joined: 27 May 2004 Posts: 1086

Djokovic -4 vs Tsonga @ 2 1.5u

onionsoup_ · Hall Of Fame Joined: 27 May 2004 Posts: 1086

Posted ATS 3-7-1, -6.55u
Posted O/Rs 0-3, -2.00u
Total -8.55u

Been a poor fortnight for me betting-wise, but has been an enjoyable tournament to follow otherwise, with the best perhaps still to come.

Still got my Murray outright pending and whilst I'm struggling to pick a winner for tonight's match, I think Murray will have a fair shot so will let it ride. I'm thinking this is going 5 sets with the eventual winner being a toss of a coin.

GL to those betting.

onionsoup_ · Hall Of Fame Joined: 27 May 2004 Posts: 1086

Too good by Federer once more, an out and out legend of sports.

Posted recap thus far -9.55u Confused

Going to try and follow the tour on a weekly basis this season (betting-wise) and see if I can stick it out. May as well keep posting the losers on here Wink

Zagreb/Johannesburg/Santiago

3 small tournaments with pretty poor fields. The Zagreb one is respectable, headlined by the leading Croats in Cilic, Ljubicic & Karlovic. J'Burg looks something like a Challenger tourney and Santiago is one for the claycourt journeymen. Speaking of Challengers, a shout out to M. Philippoussis, who officially returned to the Tour after a 3 year absence with a 4-6 4-6 first round loss at the Dallas Challenger to some journeyman. Collected a cool $520 in prizemoney for his troubles but I shouldn't laugh - that's more than I made the past 2 weeks on here

Wink

Troicki -4 vs Kukushkin @ 2.08 1.5u

Troicki's preference for short points should be theoretically well suited to the indoor courts. His lead-in form also seems quite good.

onionsoup_ · Hall Of Fame Joined: 27 May 2004 Posts: 1086

Troicki bet pushes.

Petzschner to bt Becker @ 2.09 1.5u

Petzschner the better player out of these two for mine, and has had some of his better results indoor. Worth a go at these odds.

onionsoup_ · Hall Of Fame Joined: 27 May 2004 Posts: 1086

Petzschner got it done 1-6 7-6 7-6, saving a match point. Hopefully that can be the close win that turns this campaign around.

Melzer +4.5 vs Cilic @ 1.79 1.5u

Cilic has been on fire all year, but I have a feeling Melzer can keep this one reasonably close. Cilic must be feeling some sort of fatigue after his AO campaign, and Melzer is solid indoors and won their last meeting only a couple of months ago in similar conditions.

onionsoup_ · Hall Of Fame Joined: 27 May 2004 Posts: 1086

Berrer -2.5 vs Petzschner @ 1.89 1.5u

onionsoup_ · Hall Of Fame Joined: 27 May 2004 Posts: 1086

Bellucci +2.5 vs Monaco @ 1.95 1.5u

Bellucci played very well in his upset win over Gonzalez and I think has what it takes to really put the pressure on Monaco, who has been known to be a bit shaky in finals.