Round 14, 2010

odds on · All Australian Joined: 16 Jun 2008 Posts: 513

As Onionsoup is probably forfeiting sleep with his nightly sport watching commitments, I'll kick off this thread.

Carlton 1.33 (-21.5)
Brisbane 3.35 (+21.5)

Hawthorn 2.30 (+9.5)
Western Bulldogs 1.62 (-9.5)

Fremantle 1.12 (-39.5)
Port Adelaide 6.35 (+39.5)

Collingwood 1.06 (-49.5)
West Coast 9.30 (+49.5)

Adelaide 1.61 (-9.5)
Essendon 2.33 (+9.5)

Geelong 1.16 (-35.5)
North Melbourne 5.30 (+35.5)

Richmond 2.10 (+5.5)
Sydney 1.74 (-5.5)

St Kilda 1.13 (-37.5)
Melbourne 6.05 (+37.5)

My early thoughts are the Cats to bounce back and cover the line with an easy win against the overrated Roos down at Skilled. I think the Blues are better than they are given credit and should have no problems covering against arguably the second worst team in the comp at the moment. I can't split Hawks and Dogs, happy to take 2.30 Hawthorn. Also have a slight lean towards the Dons off the bye, getting the Crows off 6 days - may be their best chance for an interstate win this year.

odds on · All Australian Joined: 16 Jun 2008 Posts: 513

1 unit Blues -21.5 @ 1.92, Sportsbet

Jimmyboy · Posted: Thu Jul 01, 2010 12:01 pm Post subject:

I can't see any of the heavy favourites losing or being challenged this week.

A big test for the Hawks this week, I've faded them quite a few times during their winning streak and if they can win here I will finally acknowledge they're a good side, but I'm really tempted to take the Dogs. A good time to take the Cats with an overachieving North facing a Geelong side hungry after last week's loss, 35 points at Skilled is fair.

The Blues are a good side on their day but it's hard to know when they will show up. Just when you think they can handle the weaker sides like Melbourne and West Coast, they are easily beaten by North, for example. Looking back it's hard to believe they comfortably beat St Kilda and Geelong.
When Brisbane start losing games at home you know they're not going too well. Carlton should take advantage of this.
0.25u Carlton 40+ at 2.80

Red · Team Player Joined: 08 Jun 2006 Posts: 80 Location: Hobart

Nice one Jimmyboy and Odds On. I think I put a margin of 28 on the footy tipping, but there's no way I would have picked anything near the 55 point differential that the scoreboard ended up showing.

There's no question that Hawthorn have been on a roll, but that has been against mostly bottom 8 sides. I'm questioning their ability to match it to the doggies.

0.5 unit Western Bulldogs -9.5 @ 1.92, Sportsbet

My other leanings this week are Adelaide and Richmond. I have to try to put aside my hatred of Essendon and be more objective, but Adelaide's demoliton of a (generally) resurgent Melbourne last week has earned them some respect in my book. And besides, Essendon sucks.

0.5 unit Adelaide -8.5 @ 1.92, Sportsbet

I'm not as confident about Richmond, and might leave it until later in the weekend before making a move, but they are showing some spark. Anyone else rate them a chance against Sydney?

odds on · All Australian Joined: 16 Jun 2008 Posts: 513

1 unit Cats -35.5 @ 1.92, Sportsbet

Jimmyboy · Posted: Fri Jul 02, 2010 4:23 pm Post subject:

Hawthorn keep winning but like I said this is their biggest test yet and the first good side they've come up against for a while. While they have more experience playing on the MCG this year than the Bulldogs, those wins during their recent streak have been by small margins and all against weaker sides. The Bulldogs, by comparison, have dominated such weak sides in the past two weeks and from what we've seen, are a class above Hawthorn. If Hawthorn win this I'll finally acknowledge them as a good side.
0.75u Bulldogs -8.5 at 1.89
0.25u Bulldogs 40+ at 5.10

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

Hawks/Bullies Over 169.5
1.11 @ $1.90

CONGO · Rookie Joined: 22 May 2010 Posts: 12

Will be punting on

Wst Bulldogs -8.5 $1.75
Adelaide -8.5 $1.90
2U Singles and 2U Double.

Adel in form and should out muscle Dons.
Dons quicker though. Hope it rains.

Good Luck and Punting all.

odds on · All Australian Joined: 16 Jun 2008 Posts: 513

1 unit Hawks @ 2.61, Pinnacle

I have also been fading Hawks a lot of late, but I don't think the Dogs are any better. I think this game is a genuine coin-flip, so 2.60 represents great value to me. Should mention, every time I have gone against JB I have lost...

Jimmyboy · Posted: Fri Jul 02, 2010 11:11 pm Post subject:

onionsoup_ · Hall Of Fame Joined: 27 May 2004 Posts: 1086

onionsoup_ · Hall Of Fame Joined: 27 May 2004 Posts: 1086

Port +38.5 @ 1.91 3u

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

Freo/Port Under 196.5
1.11 @ $1.90

Port +37.5/Collingwood Win
1 @ $2.05

Essendon +9.5
1.08 @ $1.92

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

Adelaide/Essendon Under 183.5
1.11 @ $1.90

onionsoup_ · Hall Of Fame Joined: 27 May 2004 Posts: 1086

West Coast +48.5 @ 1.91 3u

Jimmyboy · Posted: Sun Jul 04, 2010 10:48 am Post subject:

North are having a good run at the moment but things are set up for Geelong to win comfortably, if they want to. Coming off a loss, playing over at Skilled, and North's bad record against the best sides [huge losses to Freo, Bulldogs and Collingwood] point to an easy victory.
1u Geelong 40+ at 2.10

Richmond's record against the Swans is actually kind of woeful, but at the moment I feel these two teams are at a similar level. At home I expect the Tigers to put up a good fight.
0.25u Richmond at 2.44

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

Sydney/Saints Win
1.65 @ $1.91

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

Saints/Melb over 163.5
1.11 @ $1.90

onionsoup_ · Hall Of Fame Joined: 27 May 2004 Posts: 1086

Richmond +16.5 (In-Play) @ 1.85 3u

Jimmyboy · Posted: Sun Jul 04, 2010 4:33 pm Post subject:

I don't blame the Cats for taking it easy in the last 10 minutes, but to lose like that was still hard to take...

0.25u St Kilda -32.5 at 1.93