Dutchy's Crows Drip 2006

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

Ive been watching these for a while and am fascinated with this form of betting. Went to see Crows/Cats today and saw an awesome team in action (Im not a fan, Kangas actually and yes 98 still hurts).

Got me thinking that the Crows are an ideal drip team with the ability to restrict teams (average about 70 points) but also can attack with big scores. Their 2 losses this year are by less than a goal. They also have 6 of their last 9 games at home.

So Im starting a drip based solely on punting on the Crows. Rules -

Bet has to be 100%, 75% or 50% of bank, can be any bet type but will be looking at the +39.5, +24.5 starts, H2H and lines.

Look carefully at the team and what drives it and be prepared to have a "no bet" (dont fall for the Richmond loss, crows had plenty of outs including Roo)

Start with $100- but with no goal, to end at seasons end.

Will start with Sydney this week and like the H2H already - lets see what odds we get and go from there.

Jimmyboy · Posted: Sun Jul 02, 2006 11:41 pm Post subject:

So we'll have another 9 bets for the year?

I've been backing the Crows to win by over 39.5 over the past year or so in most games, and hadn't realised it till a few weeks ago. Now that people are catching on to the fact they're a good team, perhaps it's not a great bet after all. Wink

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

Jimmyboy · Posted: Mon Jul 03, 2006 4:07 pm Post subject:

Here's Adelaide's run home (with my very early thoughts):
Hawthorn (AAMI) - almost certain 40+ win Wink

Kangaroos (AAMI) - Roos have a solid record at AAMI, but should be a 40+ win
West Coast (Subiaco) - West Coast have a couple of tough ones before this - against the Pies & Swans, which means Adelaide could be favourites. Adelaide have a good record at Subi and perhaps they can cover the 40+ line considering there'll be good odds on it
Collingwood (AAMI) - Collingwood were well beaten at home by the Crows, and with plenty of money sure to come from biased Victorians on the Pies, 40+ looks a good option here
Fremantle (AAMI) - Fremantle have only beaten the Crows at AAMI once I believe - should be a 40+ win
Western Bulldogs (MCG) - The Doggies were thrashed by the Crows the last two meetings at AAMI, but beat them last year in Melbourne. Bulldogs could steal this one.
Port Adelaide (AAMI) - finals spot could be on the line for Port in this one, Adelaide may let this one slide to prime themselves for the finals...
Melbourne (AAMI) - Adelaide can blow away even the best Victorian sides at AAMI. 40+ maybe.

So there's a look at what faces the Crows, but take those thoughts with a grain of salt as they are pretty early. This week they're around 1.70 to beat the Swans, and with a good SCG record they could be primed to win.

impact · B&F Player Joined: 01 May 2006 Posts: 193

they are the best side in the afl at the moment but every side has bad days dont forget that....

crawf09 · Professional Punter Joined: 26 Mar 2004 Posts: 2446

Good luck with this dutchy,

if there any team thats ideal for this type of bet its the cros being so consistent where ever they travel.

will watch this closely and also most likely add in my 2 cents aswell if think its a bit risky Smile

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

Alirght Bet #1

Crows to win H2H
$100- @ $1.60
to return $160-00

I liked the Crows +24.5 @ $1.17 but I want to be reasonabley aggressive with this one and this bet will get me off to a good start.

Crows are on fire and play the SCG well, this grounds suits their style. Rutten will hold Hall and this will be a low scoring game unless the crows can blow it open therefore not confident in taking the line.

Swans have struggled with losses to Saints and Pies and narrow unconvincing wins against Freo and Kanags. Swans seem to play bette in Melbourne this year than Sydney!

Anyway lets hope the crows win and I can kick this off nicely with 2 home games against Hawks and Roos (Rucciuto's 300th) in the following two weeks.

crawf09 · Professional Punter Joined: 26 Mar 2004 Posts: 2446

Good luck mate understand you being aggressive with this one so will leave that choice upto you but I would of been more wary of the swans at home.

They seem to manage away to just scrape across there.

Anyway good luck and hope this bets cashes in for you. Smile

Jimmyboy · Posted: Fri Jul 07, 2006 4:18 pm Post subject:

Have you looked at the Crows record at the SCG crawf? It's something like 8 wins, 5 losses. However, Adelaide are favourites due to the form they're in, not so much their record there. Since 2001, the Swans have only beaten the Crows once at the SCG (by only 13 points - when Adelaide finished 13th that season). Jack Daniels went with the Swans so that's swayed me towards betting on the Crows.

Can't say I'm as confident as Dutchy on this one as I think this is one of the rare games Adelaide could lose, but I'll have some small money on the win and the handicap.

impact · B&F Player Joined: 01 May 2006 Posts: 193

i really like your chances here....IMO sydney are big time over-rated and crows are the real deal

really think sydney rely heavily on their forward line to win matches.....this week crows have the match up's to cut out every forward swans have.....

crawf09 · Professional Punter Joined: 26 Mar 2004 Posts: 2446

bobbins · All Australian Joined: 28 May 2004 Posts: 652

Jimmyboy · Posted: Sun Jul 09, 2006 5:18 pm Post subject:

Perfect start Dutchy

impact · B&F Player Joined: 01 May 2006 Posts: 193

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

Bet #1

Crows to win H2H
$100- @ $1.60
returns $160-00 Very Happy

good start and glad my thoughts were correct...also took them in another bet into the Saints so had a good day

Next target is the Hawks...early thoughts are that the line could be the go if weather is fine...see how the week pans out

Jimmyboy · Posted: Sun Jul 09, 2006 11:00 pm Post subject:

Even if it's wet the Crows should win by more than the 50 point line which is likely to be on offer. Hawthorn lost by 96 to Port Adelaide a few weeks back and it should be a similar margin here. Hawks don't play well two weeks in a row either. Wink

I wonder what odds you'd get on a 100 point win? That'd be worth a go I reckon.

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

Thanks for the advice Jimmy, thinking the same thing, living in Adelaide I might leave the bet until right at the end if the weather is looking dodgy but then agin you have to risk that the line may expand further during the week.

Did you go 40+ v Sydney? just missed if you did...

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

Alright here's my options this week, would appreciate your thoughts, although weather is looking threatening this weekend, big downpour and 10c here tomorrow and showers and windy on Saturday so I might wait until just before the game to make my final decision this week-

Crows to win - $1-06
HT/FT Double - $1.14 this one if raining
-15.5 - $1.15
-24.5 - $1.18
-39.5 - $1.63 this one is my thoughts if weather is half decent
-46.5 - $1.85
-47.5 - $1.90
-52.5 - $2.10

Jimmyboy · Posted: Thu Jul 13, 2006 11:38 pm Post subject:

effes · B&F Player Joined: 05 Jul 2006 Posts: 159

Everything on the Crows this week Smile