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pigsarse Star Player
Joined: 15 Apr 2006 Posts: 295
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Posted: Sun May 27, 2007 11:17 am Post subject: The Better-Than-Jimmyboy's $100 drip campaign |
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Got $100 wasting away in my Centrebet account, not even earning me interest, so I figure, wtf, might as well have another go at one of these drip challenges.
Then I thought that seeing as Jimmyboy's only recently started one himself for the same amount, LET'S HAVE OURSELVES A SHOWDOWN! Pigs vs JB. No set target, simply whoever's got the most out of that hundred bucks come season's end gets bragging rights as the unofficial Footytrends Drip of the Year... err, might have to work on that title.
So, you up for the challenge, Jimmyboy? But I must first warn you - I've been doing a trial run this season and have been having a remarkable run of success on paper. If I can replicate that with the real thing, YOU HAVE NO CHANCE!
Anyway, enough of the BS, let's begin:
Bet 1
Melbourne v Roos
Mel +39.5
$100 @ 1.20
Too easy  |
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Jimmyboy Site Admin
Joined: 11 Apr 2006 Posts: 1558 Location: Melbourne
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Posted: Sun May 27, 2007 12:22 pm Post subject: |
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Nothing wrong with a bit of competition, bring it on I say
I tentatively wish you good luck on this bet  |
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pigsarse Star Player
Joined: 15 Apr 2006 Posts: 295
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Posted: Sun May 27, 2007 6:16 pm Post subject: |
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Never in doubt.  |
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Jimmyboy Site Admin
Joined: 11 Apr 2006 Posts: 1558 Location: Melbourne
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Posted: Sun May 27, 2007 7:13 pm Post subject: |
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Well done mate, I'm sure you knew that the Roos struggle in final terms, so you would have been feeling relaxed at 3 quarter time.  |
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pigsarse Star Player
Joined: 15 Apr 2006 Posts: 295
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Posted: Sat Jun 02, 2007 1:07 am Post subject: |
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Bet 2
3 way multi:
Swans +24.5 @1.06
Tigers +39.5 @ 1.08
Port +39.5 @ 1.07
$120 @ 1.22
You're probably right about the Swannies winning outright, Jimmyboy, but I always like having that extra leeway. On the off-chance there's a boil-over, there's no way it's gonna be by over 4 goals.
As for last week's bet, I was wacthing the replay and had actually written it off at 3/4 time, the Dees were that insipid up to that stage. Jumped on the computer to see how much they got rolled by and almost fell off me chair at how close they got. Funny thing this momentum.
Anyway, good luck this week. |
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chappers B&F Player
Joined: 21 May 2004 Posts: 190 Location: Melbourne
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Posted: Sat Jun 02, 2007 5:31 pm Post subject: |
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| looks to be a pretty good bet - what book is this through? |
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Jimmyboy Site Admin
Joined: 11 Apr 2006 Posts: 1558 Location: Melbourne
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Posted: Sat Jun 02, 2007 6:22 pm Post subject: |
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Good luck mate.
The bet should win, Richmond have a good record against the Lions and they are arguably in better form at the moment - they haven't been blown away by an away team either this year. Sydney won't lose, Port have a good record at AAMI over the Hawks so should be able to at least keep it close. |
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pigsarse Star Player
Joined: 15 Apr 2006 Posts: 295
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Posted: Sat Jun 02, 2007 6:54 pm Post subject: |
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| chappers wrote: |
| looks to be a pretty good bet - what book is this through? |
Centrebet. They're the only ones who offer these sorts of bets for some reason. |
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Jimmyboy Site Admin
Joined: 11 Apr 2006 Posts: 1558 Location: Melbourne
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Posted: Sat Jun 02, 2007 7:08 pm Post subject: |
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Yeah, if you want a 24.5 point start, Centrebet are the only ones you can get them with.
However you can effectively get 39.5 point starts on teams with Betfair by laying a team to win by over 39. |
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Jimmyboy Site Admin
Joined: 11 Apr 2006 Posts: 1558 Location: Melbourne
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Posted: Sat Jun 02, 2007 11:40 pm Post subject: |
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Looks like you win the "comp". Didn't think Sydney were much of a show when they gave up those first 4 goals. Did well to get within a point really.
I'll resurrect the drip soon, but I'm behind the 8 ball. |
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pigsarse Star Player
Joined: 15 Apr 2006 Posts: 295
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Posted: Sun Jun 03, 2007 12:56 am Post subject: |
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| Jimmyboy wrote: |
Looks like you win the "comp". Didn't think Sydney were much of a show when they gave up those first 4 goals. Did well to get within a point really.
I'll resurrect the drip soon, but I'm behind the 8 ball. |
Bad luck, Jimmy - that kick that grazed the post must have really stung.
For the record, I thought Syd were certs as well, but I've been burnt too often in the past by so-called certanties going down, that's why I always try to have just a little bit of a buffer for these kind of bets. If I went on pure judgement alone, I'd have blown my bank as well. |
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pigsarse Star Player
Joined: 15 Apr 2006 Posts: 295
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Posted: Sun Jun 03, 2007 4:05 pm Post subject: |
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&@#*$#@ hell. If that last kick had gone a couple of inches further, I would no longer have a functioning TV set... I had the remote control aimed and I would NOT have missed.
Christ I hate watching games like that - Port kicking something like 7 consecutive behinds; some inexplicable umpiring decions not going Port's way; all the while, the Hawks inching closer and closer to that 40 point margin...
I was ready to explode and that was with only $120 at stake - imagine having serious money on the result!
Not sure if these risk-it-all drip campaigns are really for me - way way too stressful. And the neighbours must surely be wondering what the hell is going on with all that yelling. |
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Jimmyboy Site Admin
Joined: 11 Apr 2006 Posts: 1558 Location: Melbourne
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Posted: Sun Jun 03, 2007 4:57 pm Post subject: |
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Shit - did they lose by over 39? I gave up at 3 quarter time on that game.
I tell you what, this was a very bad weekend for drips, we both ended up losing our bankroll. I've got back on the horse but bloody oath it's stressful, even with only a small bank %. |
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pigsarse Star Player
Joined: 15 Apr 2006 Posts: 295
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Posted: Sun Jun 03, 2007 10:22 pm Post subject: |
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Let me paint the picture:
When I first turned the game on, it was early in the second term and they were leading by 26 points. Ah, piece of cake, I thought. Incredibly - as though they knew I'd just started watching - the Hawks suddenly got on a roll from that point on, wiping out the deficit in no time, and then slowly building their lead throughout the rest of the game.
In the last quarter, Port were going okay, but they just couldn't convert. Down the other end, the Hawks would rarely miss a conversion. It looked like going all pear-shaped until a Port goal pulled the lead back to 28 pts with 2 and a half minutes left. They maintained this lead until inside 2 minutes to go, then the Hawks went forward and goaled. 34 points difference with 31 seconds left on the clock. Surely they wouldn't concede a goal within this time!
Anyway, Hawks win the ball forward to one of their forwards who marks about 50 metres from goal. Siren blows. He kicks the ball. It's long... high... straight... "He's nailed it!" bellows Dwayne Russell. I'm ready to explode in disbelief... only to see that the ball hadn't quite carried the distance and the Port player on the line had stopped it going through.
So, despite the vitriol of my previous post, Port just managed to keep the margin to under 40 - but it wasn't easy viewing.
| Jimmyboy wrote: |
Yeah, if you want a 24.5 point start, Centrebet are the only ones you can get them with.
However you can effectively get 39.5 point starts on teams with Betfair by laying a team to win by over 39. |
The other way is to back the side you like (eg Port today) to win outright and couple it with the opposing side to win under 40. The beauty of this is that you can use different books to get the best prices on each side of the bet.
A tool like http://www.sports-arbitrage.info/arb-calculator/ will help you work out what percentage to bet on each side. It will also show you if you're getting better value than Centrebet's odds. Eg, Centrebet were offering $1.06 on Port +39.5 this morning, and yet $1.73 was available for Port to win through one book, and $2.90 on Hawks under 40 on another, which equates to odds of $1.08. Not a huge deal of difference but it all adds up in the end.
This of course is no good for multis like my bet above - unless the games are on at different times, when you can simply plough the winnings into the next game. |
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stone cold Professional Punter
Joined: 27 Mar 2004 Posts: 2993
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Posted: Mon Jun 04, 2007 12:52 am Post subject: |
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Hehehehehehehehe.
You gotta love the mix of emotions that all in drips create. I don't think there is anything quite like it.
Port have a history of doing that kind of shit.
I remember they screwed one of my drips once in very similar circumstances. I had them at +39.5 and they were down by 35 points with 15 seconds to go. The opposing team had just kicked a goal to get to 35 points in front and I'm thinking "surely I'm safe."
Port gives away a free kick at the centre bounce and then proceeds to make pricks of themselves and give away 2 50 metre penalties to gift a goal on the siren.
I don't think I've ever quite recovered. |
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chappers B&F Player
Joined: 21 May 2004 Posts: 190 Location: Melbourne
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Posted: Mon Jun 04, 2007 10:48 am Post subject: |
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| pigsarse wrote: |
| Eg, Centrebet were offering $1.06 on Port +39.5 this morning, and yet $1.73 was available for Port to win through one book, and $2.90 on Hawks under 40 on another, which equates to odds of $1.08. Not a huge deal of difference but it all adds up in the end. |
It doesn't seem like much when you say $1.06 compared to $1.08.
But what if you say 33% better odds? |
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Dutchy Hall Of Fame
Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA
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Posted: Mon Jun 04, 2007 10:03 pm Post subject: |
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yeah worse thing about playing those +39.5 lines is knowing the teams dont give a shit about you margin and just go thru the motions in the last few minutes while you are on the edge of your seat!!!
I use the +24.5 and +39.5 lines to have a multi each week to make a divvie of anywhere between $2- & $3-, last week I had a 7 legger and got them all except I had Port at +24.5, should have gone +39.5 and I would have survived!!! |
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pigsarse Star Player
Joined: 15 Apr 2006 Posts: 295
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Posted: Wed Jun 06, 2007 11:33 pm Post subject: |
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| stone cold wrote: |
Hehehehehehehehe.
You gotta love the mix of emotions that all in drips create. I don't think there is anything quite like it.
Port have a history of doing that kind of shit.
I remember they screwed one of my drips once in very similar circumstances. I had them at +39.5 and they were down by 35 points with 15 seconds to go. The opposing team had just kicked a goal to get to 35 points in front and I'm thinking "surely I'm safe."
Port gives away a free kick at the centre bounce and then proceeds to make pricks of themselves and give away 2 50 metre penalties to gift a goal on the siren.
I don't think I've ever quite recovered. |
Funny you should mention that.
Round 18, 2004. Had Port +39.5 against the Bombers as part of a 7-leg multi. They're 22 points down with under 4 minutes left on the clock. Lo and behold, they concede three goals in this time to knock me out by one solitary point. Naturally, all the other legs came in.
I don't think I've ever fully recovered either. Whenever I'm watching a game where the team I've backed is in a similar position as Port that night, needing only not to concede several goals in a matter of minutes for me to win, I get a vivid flashback of that night and just cannot remain calm.
If I'm watching with others, they'll say, "Relax, mate. You're home and hosed." I'll just look at them and say, "If only you knew what can happen. If only you knew."
| chappers wrote: |
It doesn't seem like much when you say $1.06 compared to $1.08.
But what if you say 33% better odds? |
Yeah, fair point. And sometimes you can get even better than this, though it must be said that more often than not, Centrebet's odds work out to be better anyway. Which is a surprise, seeing as they seem to have a monopoly on these types of bets.
| Dutchy wrote: |
| yeah worse thing about playing those +39.5 lines is knowing the teams dont give a shit about you margin and just go thru the motions in the last few minutes while you are on the edge of your seat!!! |
Tell me about it! The bastards should be told just how important that 39.5 margin is!
| Dutchy wrote: |
| I use the +24.5 and +39.5 lines to have a multi each week to make a divvie of anywhere between $2- & $3-, last week I had a 7 legger and got them all except I had Port at +24.5, should have gone +39.5 and I would have survived!!! |
Yeah, I've been keeping a trial record of +39.5/+24.5 bets all year, and I've had a remarkable run of success (on paper ), including a 5-leg multi in Round 2 that would've paid $4.61!
But every now and again you'll get one result that'll really take you by surprise and wipe out the entire bank - eg, Dogs would have done that to me the very next round; and, as mentioned above, Port very nearly burned me on Sunday.
I'm not sure what the solution is. The thing is, I like to bet with a little bit of risk, chasing some excellent value at the risk of that side being blown away. But obviously such a practice doesn't lend itself to drip betting, where only the most conservative approach will give you a chance in hell of having a sustained run - again the Port/Hawks game being the classic example, with me, you and Jimmyboy all really keen on the Power, but only the most conservative of the 3 of us prospering (if you can possibly use the term prosper to describe a win of $26!)
Perhaps I should try your approach of limiting the bets to a single round. Or maybe I should go all up for, say, three rounds, bank half, then continue on. Because the thing with this type of betting - as Crawf showed with his $1000 to $5000 campaign of a few years ago - is that it doesn't take that many consecutive wins (17 I think he got to) to realise a very healthy return on your initial bank. But neither do I wanna blow the lot due to one single lame-arse effort as epitomised by the boys from Alberton on the weekend.
Anyway, feel free to contribute any thoughts on this guys. Cheers. |
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pigsarse Star Player
Joined: 15 Apr 2006 Posts: 295
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Posted: Fri Jun 08, 2007 7:18 pm Post subject: |
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Bet 3
WC +39.5 @ 1.06
$146 @ 1.06
Might be famous last words but there shouldn't be too many concerns here.
Will roll this over into some other bets this round, just a little rushed for time at the moment. At this stage I'm leaning towards Dogs and Saints, and possibly Freo to win outright. |
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Jimmyboy Site Admin
Joined: 11 Apr 2006 Posts: 1558 Location: Melbourne
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Posted: Fri Jun 08, 2007 8:29 pm Post subject: |
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Easy  |
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