NBL Finals Series 2009

deasend · All Australian Joined: 04 Aug 2006 Posts: 590

Looking forward to the playoffs. Hopefully they are just as successful as last year's playoffs were.

Love Perth in this spot tomorrow night. They should take care of a team that has struggled in recent visits to Perth. As always with the playoffs, looking for the value in the under. For the record, the under finished the regular season with a 58% hit ratio (87-63). This only increases with the higher intensity pressure defence that playoff games bring.

Perth home games have averaged 184 this season (taking the regulation total for that 2OT game against the Sixers). The Crocs average 206 at home, but 189 on the road. In their last four visits to Perth, the Crocs have scored 76, 78, 78 and 75. I don't see any reason why they crack 80 tomorrow night either unless Rillie or Cedar light it up. Looking for a 95-80 sort of result here.

2.5* Perth -8.5
4* Perth/Townsville Under 189.5

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

Agree... www.thegreek.com have Perth @ -7 for some reason, although not as confident they will cover Ive got to have something on the good line....wish I had been watching their lines earlier as there have been some big differences

Crocs/Perth Under 188.5
2.75 Units @ $1.91

Perth -7.0
1.1 Units @ $1.91

deasend · All Australian Joined: 04 Aug 2006 Posts: 590

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

Yeah unbelievable shooting last night, they couldnt miss, only needed a couple to miss and it would have stayed under

Anyway have been profiting from Adelaide unders all season, no need to stop now

Adelaide/NZ Under 198.5
2.2 Units @ $1.91

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

Crocs +10.0
1.65 @ $1.91

deasend · All Australian Joined: 04 Aug 2006 Posts: 590

2.5* Tigers/Breakers under 196.5

The last 3 games between these two have been 96-89, 103-85 and 84-86. Always like the under in the playoffs. Should be plenty of intensity in this one and much like the Perth/Crocs game, as long as the Tigers keep the Breakers long range bombers under control it should stay well under this line.

deasend · All Australian Joined: 04 Aug 2006 Posts: 590

Haha great start to the finals series. Sure know how to pick em. What a free flowing game that just turned into a shootout. Doubt we'll see the same in game two, but who knows the way these playoffs have gone.

A game every night at the moment with this semi final schedule. Works out beautifully for the punters with every game on fox to boot.

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

Crocs/Dragons Under 194.0
2.2 Units @ $1.91

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

Melbourne/NZ Under 202.0
1.65 @ $1.91

deasend · All Australian Joined: 04 Aug 2006 Posts: 590

Another under. Nice hit.

It feels like the only overs all playoffs have been in the games I've backed the bloody under.

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

Thanks, going to go against the trend tonight

Crocs/South over 181.5
1.1 @ $1.91

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

YTD 61-59-3
-2.84 Units

deasend · All Australian Joined: 04 Aug 2006 Posts: 590

Hoping for a Dragons win this GF series, but gut tells me Tigers in 4.

2* Ingles at 2.75 to outscore Darden, Gibson, Kendell and Hoare across the series

Did a similar bet in last years GF series on DT. Don't like these bets for single games, but over the course of 4-5 games, the cream usually rises to the top.

They can't keep Ingles down for the whole series, he will score 20+ points in one of the games. He will play the most minutes of the group and he will be the only one who is a primary scoring option for his team. Ingles averages 14 a game for this series and it should be enough to claim this group.

The contenders in the season meetings between the two to date and their playoff scores so far.

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

Going to take South to win the Championship and sit back and watch, might have a prop or two -

South Dragons Win Championship
4 Units @ $1.97

deasend · All Australian Joined: 04 Aug 2006 Posts: 590

Well, after 4 games Ingles is out in front on 51 with Darden sitting on 43 and the next best behind them is Gibson on 29.

Putting a break even hedge on Darden for the last game just in case to give me free swing at 3.1*

0.4* Darden to win the group @ $6

Darden wins = +0* (break exactly even with the 2.4* return)
Ingles wins = +3.1*

The finals series has been painful. I love riding the playoff unders, but after missing the first two, I got cold feet and just sat out the games. The under came in for 6 matches in a row after that Tigers game. Could have been a very profitable couple of weeks.

I hope the Dragons can get up for you Dutch, but I still have a sneaky suspicion Anstey and Ebi will drag the Tigers over the line when it matters.

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1949 Location: SA

YTD 62-59-3
+1.04 Units

tough year, very glad to get out of it with a mini profit after being down double digits....

Nice layoff D

deasend · All Australian Joined: 04 Aug 2006 Posts: 590

Great 4 unit win to end the season on the good side of the ledger Dutchy.

Darden was off the chain tonight, that 3rd quarter was ridiculous. Lucky to escape at evens after than onslaught.

Now on to the footy...

Jimmyboy · Posted: Tue Mar 17, 2009 10:26 pm Post subject:

Even though I'm not skilled enough to join you on the NBL, congrats on the season guys. Dutchy, I thought it was quite fitting that you fought back from double digits down to a victory - reminds me of so many basketball games. As D said, let's bring on the footy!