2010 NAB CUP

odds on · Star Player Joined: 16 Jun 2008 Posts: 489

OK, as of tonight a handful of books have released lines.

Dogs -18.5
Port +18.5

Saints -24.5
Freo +24.5

If this was the regular season I am sure everyone of us would be jumping on both faves at the minus. Neither Port or Freo can travel - both teams went 1-10 interstate last season, with Freo's one win coming at a neutral venue against the Blues. Furthermore, both faves gave their respective opponents 90+ point thrashings in 2009. But I don't need to be telling anyone here about the class difference in the weekends games.

What we need to remember, I suppose, is that this is not the regular season. It is likely that if both the Dogs and Saints have decent leads at halftime they will sub off their stars. Nevertheless, I am going to find it very hard leave the Bulldogs alone, and will probably end up betting the Saints too!

I am keen to hear what you guys think....Dutchy, you have been betting all NAB Cup, how are you leaning this weekend?

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1937 Location: SA

Full Strength side taken to Melbourne tonight. reckon at 3 goals in they are value...i think the line should be around +7/+8, Port are playing the best out of any side Ive seen so far and fatigue and travel dont come into the equation this time of year, in fact I reckon the clubs enjoy getting away

Port +18.5
1.1 @ $1.91

odds on · Star Player Joined: 16 Jun 2008 Posts: 489

1 unit Dogs -17.5 @ 1.91, Betstar

I feel uneasy about going the other way to Dutchy here, but I think the Dogs will do it easily tonight.

odds on · Star Player Joined: 16 Jun 2008 Posts: 489

Dogs - so, so wasteful!

crawf09 · Professional Punter Joined: 26 Mar 2004 Posts: 2446

Ok the NBA Cup has come down to the Doggies and Saints with both of them set at 1.90

Wait for team lineups to see which way that swings everyone!

odds on · Star Player Joined: 16 Jun 2008 Posts: 489

Both times they played each other in the regular season last year the Saints were convincing winners (the round 6 margin of 28 points flatters the Dogs). However, I got burned in the Prelim backing the Saints at -17.5. They ended up just scraping over the line, but if Riewouldt hadn't played it would have been the Dogs in the GF.

I think defensively the Saints are a far superior team over the Dogs. In all three meetings last year the Saints managed to restrict the Dogs to less than 100 points - not a common occurrence for the highest scoring team in the league.

At this stage I am leaning towards the Saints on their favourite track.

As Crawf has suggested, it will be best to wait and see the teams tomorrow night before betting.

Dutchy · Hall Of Fame Joined: 18 Jun 2006 Posts: 1937 Location: SA

No bet for me this weekend.

Dutchys Footy
+1.40 Units

odds on · Star Player Joined: 16 Jun 2008 Posts: 489

The more I look at this one the harder I'm finding it to separate them. Judging by the lack of movement in the market I'm not alone on this.

The bookies have priced this up well. No bet for me.