Brownlow Medal Betting 2005

wis · 1st Gamer Joined: 10 May 2005 Posts: 20

Hi, im new and i have enjoyed the opinions that you guys have shared.

Anyhows, its 7 rounds in, and from what i have seen its really a 4 horse race between Judd, Cousins, Pavlich and Dal Santo. The likely winner will come from this four imho.

But a few roughies (not 50-1 players who i think have just no chance but those that have a slight chance) who look good are N.Brown, Tredrea and Cameron Bruce. I mean when Port wins Tredrea seams like he is always one of the top 3 players their, and i know he got hammered in last years brownlow, but him not blaming the umpires for that 50m free kick controversy, maybe umpires will be generous to him this year. Plus with chad cornes out for a few weeks that will be less votes stolen off him.

As long as continues Richmond wins, Brown should poll well as he is another player who seems to always be in their top players when they win. He is a good roughie to have a punt on.

And Cameron Bruce looks like he will be back this week, and from my count he isn't too far behind (about 3-4 votes?) Cousins who imho is leading the voting at the moment with. Bruce is a gun and with melbourne looking void of any real superstars i think with his odds easing to 34-1, this looks to be excellent value.

Like to hear your suggestions and happing punting all.

stone cold · Professional Punter Joined: 27 Mar 2004 Posts: 2993

Welcome to the family Wis.
So far by my count I have N. Brown leading by a couple from B. Cousins and M. Pavelich. Of course it's still early but I just don't know about Tredrea. It's been a long time since a big man won it. I have already put some on Dal Santo which I did before the season started. Now I will wait until about rd 15 and then start to smack players each week.

crawf09 · Professional Punter Joined: 26 Mar 2004 Posts: 2446

Welcome to the site Wis!!!

Hope you enjoy everything on here and look forward to you contributing on the forums. Very Happy

As of Round 7 I agree that the 4 guys you mentioed all deserve to be the worth favourites at the moment. I have just noticed Benny Cousins is now outright favourite as of today.

Also agree about Browny, I can remember a couple years back he got close to winning it and that was in a losing site. If Richmond make the 8 theres a good chance browny will be up there at the end. He only needs a handful of good games cause he attrachts the 3s.

Bruce I think would have had 9 votes in the first 3 rounds and was in blistering form. Be interesting to see how he settles back in after his injury. If he continues anything like the start the year good chance he may run away from it.

You make some valid points about Tredders with Cornes being out but I had money on him last year and im trying not to rate forwards as high this year. Trying to stick to midfeilders unless something really stands out.

I think Riccuto isnt bad odds around the 50-1 mark aswell. He always polls well and if Adelaide win enough games could also still be right up there.

plugger · B&F Player Joined: 04 May 2004 Posts: 148

Welcome wis.

What about a guy called Brett Kirk everyone currently paying 151-1 worth chucking $5 on i think.

Great tagger and now captain make him stand out more. Polled well last year and if Sydney can pull aa few wins together theres no reason why he couldnt come close.

Go Kirky

Kenny A · B&F Player Joined: 17 May 2004 Posts: 212

Well no Judd now makes the brownlow alot different to bet on.

Great last quarter by nathan brown on the weekend would have got him the 3 and he will be right near the top the leaderboard so far this year.

His odds have came right in though, noticed all 3 of you have mentioned him so hope yous got on before the odds dropped.

Good Luck

crawf09 · Professional Punter Joined: 26 Mar 2004 Posts: 2446

Kenny that last quarter by Brown against the Pies was magnificent. He was also the match winner again this week against Brisbane kicking 2 great goals in the lsat quarter including the match winner with 2 minutes left.

his down to 10-1 for brownlow now.

Riccuto has came in big time this weeka fter a magnificent game against the saints,

from 50-1 into 14-1

Notice I called him just last week to Very Happy

wis · 1st Gamer Joined: 10 May 2005 Posts: 20

Tredrea's odds gone from 34-1 to 15-1 after another BOG. If not for the fact that he is a kpp, i reckon his odds could be alot shorter seeing that his got 3 BOG's, 2 obvious ones and 1 that could be disputed (the anzac game where he got the medal, but many felt Ling deserved).

Looks to be hotting up, but its hard to go pass cousins. Captain on a winning team notching up 27 possession a game. Helps to be the bloke tossing the coin, umps get a good look at ya.

Kenny A · B&F Player Joined: 17 May 2004 Posts: 212

Nice calls everyone, most the ones yous have mentioned have firmed the next week.

Wis : Alot the guys really liked tredrea last year to. Same gos with Barry Hall both very dominant forwards last year and didnt get the votes they deserved. Maybe very unlucky but it seems to be the winners seem to come from the midfield.

Vanders · Team Player Joined: 26 May 2004 Posts: 55

Look out for Hodgy into 15-1 at the tab now.

4 30+ games in a row would have to have some votes in there. Very Happy

wis · 1st Gamer Joined: 10 May 2005 Posts: 20

Hodgy woulda only posted a few 2's and 1's in close games and games that hawthorn have won. I reckon he would be tied so far along with Mitchell for top hawks pointsgetter.

Looks like cousins almost has it in the bag if he stays uninjured.

Kenny A · B&F Player Joined: 17 May 2004 Posts: 212

Alots changed since these posts a while back.

Akermanis

plugger · B&F Player Joined: 04 May 2004 Posts: 148

crawf :

Have you been following your brownlow system this year, or have you stopped doing it?

Like to see what it brings out so far, I know yous liked Tredrea and a few other forwards alot last year and were abit dissapointed when they didnt do aswell.

Maybe elimenate any forwards from winning it or scale them down a bit this year, which might bring up some decent odds on the midfielders?

crawf09 · Professional Punter Joined: 26 Mar 2004 Posts: 2446

Hi plugger.

I have started to fill in the spreadsheet and will be using it as an indication this year. As you have said that is exactly the plan is to pay alot higher interest to the midfileders I have rated well.

I will let yous know the votes I come up with and maybe we can apply some filters to it.

Kenny : Akermanis definately would of got 6 votes the last 2 weeks and has a great consistent season. Would love to see him win another brownlow. I got some on him at 80-1 a few weeks back. And now is rangin between 7-1 to 14-1. I think he is to short at those odds though.

thadaz · Star Player Joined: 27 Mar 2004 Posts: 450

"Centrebet has started betting on the Brownlow Medal without odds-on favourite Ben Cousins. It is the first time ever that the bookamker has offered Brownlow Medal odds without the favourite. "I did not think that I would see the day that a footballer would be such short odds for the Brownlow Medal that a bookmaker would bet without him," says Centrebet's Gerard Daffy. "

coming towards the end now, was wondering if any of u guys know where i can gain access to how the ppl in charge have voted for the herald sun award and how the guys at chan 9 have voted rnd by rnd for the lou richards medal as i cant seem to find it anywhere

crawf09 · Professional Punter Joined: 26 Mar 2004 Posts: 2446

Hi thedaz,

Im not sure where to find them mate im guessing youve tryed there official websites.

I have been running me spreadhseet throughout the year to of votes and Cousins has had a bloody awesome season though he def is still a good chance of getting rolled.

I have PAV right up there with him. and at $8.50 yes gimme some of that.

crawf09 · Professional Punter Joined: 26 Mar 2004 Posts: 2446

We did say last year not to back forwards but I think there is a little exception for Pav, he maybe a forward but he plays alot further up the ground then a traditional forward.

wis · 1st Gamer Joined: 10 May 2005 Posts: 20

Plonked $150 on a cousins/gehrig parlay for coleman and brownlow. With willo out, gehrig @1.40 I felt was almost a gift. And by my count, cuz almost has in the bag. But the brownlow has had its share of surprises so we'll see on the night.

Pav looks a great bet for place and so does Ricciuto right now. I feel they have overpriced Hayes and West, neaning great value for both pav and roo. I mean they have racked up the possies but the doggies have a more even distribution of class this year so he won't get the majoritve chunk of the votes that he got last year and hayes will have dal santo, koschitzke, gehrig and ball eating a big chuck of his votes and he isn't spectacular by any means. Look forward to seeing the odds for top club pointgetters.

Vanders · Team Player Joined: 26 May 2004 Posts: 55

wis cousins/gehrig does look like a good bet to me, hard to see anyone beating cousins has had such a consistent year all the way through.

People talk about others stealing votes but when you are the top team and only lost 3 games all year long theres going to be plenty of votes to go round.

Remember Akka and Blacks year same was said then.

Cousins by a country mile i think

onionsoup_ · Hall Of Fame Joined: 27 May 2004 Posts: 1050

I wonder if Judd hadn't been suspended whether there would be so much hype about Cousins' Brownlow chances. Don't get me wrong, he's had a very strong year, but I think the price of 1.55 for him is a bit too short.

wis · 1st Gamer Joined: 10 May 2005 Posts: 20

Yeh I agree onion. I think judd could very well poll in the top 3 for votes. If they offered place betting on judd, I would be on it.